Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9a8c046153c831b11aadd789ab452d07e608dde3ebd4604105397ac73c47bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 54c | 23,454$12,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,584.34 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 43c | 9,376$4,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,072.52 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 46c | 7,083$3,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,824.58 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 55c | 5,517$3,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.83 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 4,149$2,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 37c | 2,707$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked No | 64c | 2,345$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,916$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.59 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 1,877$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.56 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 57c | 845.26$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.8 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d9…f53abacked Yes | 35c | 800$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…08d9backed No | 65c | 800$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 77c | 777.22$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.66 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 66c | 747.03$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.51 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 35c | 461$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.65 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 28c | 435$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 64c | 258.51$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…c348backed Yes | 34c | 141.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 31c | 87.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Yes | 41c | 75.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 66c | 72.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…911fbacked Yes | 37c | 64.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 64c | 19.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.