Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5190e0538a21ff9597dc1dea51fcdd7a5744001648f8336fea5b68c5b7aca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 29c | 16,036$4,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,593.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 8,250$5,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 6,897$4,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 5,304$3,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.12 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 40c | 1,829$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.68 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,544$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.41 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Yes | 7c | 900$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…760dbacked No | 63c | 600.4$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…e89bbacked Yes | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 65c | 480$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.63 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Yes | 38c | 447.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 35c | 299$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 37c | 250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 36c | 233$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 39c | 137.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 39c | 109.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 35c | 102.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 65c | 61.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab63…ab4abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…ed86backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 65c | 41.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…79c4backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 59c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 38c | 29.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…9a51backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 64c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-10-19?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.