Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Nürnberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba8870e2191674399a03cb491ae14d2f89ac921c1e0d906914d362b138cfad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Under | 40c | 1,188$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 430.68$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.84 | 3,288 | 42.6%1,400 W · 1,888 L | -74.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 55c | 399.18$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 335.72$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 1,691 | 45%761 W · 930 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 62c | 324.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 234.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 40c | 233.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 61c | 172.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 42c | 160.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 148.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1,315 | 40.6%534 W · 781 L | -44.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3f…8cd6backed Under | 43c | 102.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…3eeebacked Under | 43c | 78.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 43.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2,564 | 39.8%1,020 W · 1,544 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 40c | 39.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 671 | 45.6%306 W · 365 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 33c | 35.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 34.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b85…a1fdbacked Under | 40c | 34.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 39c | 31.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 28.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed Under | 40c | 27.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…9f26backed Over | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.