Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bce0c9e6df525a888c75aeca7325d37cf265d0e576b9907e1ce5b6a7b1d08d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e75…4e58backed No | 0c | 11,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed No | 0c | 10,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 2c | 3,057$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 4c | 2,209$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,524$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 5c | 1,138$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 10c | 998.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 2c | 747.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 6c | 537.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 517.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 486.97$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.22 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 61c | 406.11$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 15c | 343.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 271.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 58c | 218$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 49c | 195.77$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed Yes | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 45c | 167.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 161.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 13c | 135.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 35c | 132.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 40c | 87.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 52c | 78.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 35c | 67.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 30c | 64.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed No | 53c | 60.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 59c | 38.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 70c | 38.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 65c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 32.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 65c | 31.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 41c | 31.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 64c | 30.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…5fd0backed No | 66c | 30.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 30.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked Yes | 40c | 27.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 55c | 26.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 50c | 22.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 53c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…439fbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.