Olympics · resolved market
France train attack claimed by terror org?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9be11660580a42aed076528ae11bffa13f5932664d68a95db194f57b159f7385
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 1c | 3,240$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 2,530$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…a193backed Yes | 15c | 1,015$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 4c | 900.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…1169backed Yes | 8c | 419.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 12c | 361.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…c3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 248.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…f6d8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…45e5backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…63bfbacked Yes | 14c | 107.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 13c | 85.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 16c | 77.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…7abdbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.