Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniil Medvedev vs. Lorenzo Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9be7e1b708858e1aab925f49346e34c019ef86bc7a255dd762269f180c0d326f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musetti of Medvedev, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Musetti | 68c | 24,650$16,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,806.49 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Medvedev | 31c | 21,230$6,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,664.66 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Medvedev | 39c | 2,483$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…2e13backed Medvedev | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Medvedev | 30c | 770.96$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.22 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed Musetti | 63c | 620$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Musetti | 78c | 568.18$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed Musetti | 63c | 330$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Musetti | 70c | 280.54$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…316abacked Medvedev | 37c | 280$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b4…37c9backed Medvedev | 37c | 275$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…07f2backed Medvedev | 36c | 265$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…177cbacked Medvedev | 37c | 265$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Musetti | 63c | 176$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…531cbacked Musetti | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +157.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…0824backed Musetti | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked Musetti | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…f248backed Musetti | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Musetti | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…45c5backed Musetti | 63c | 155$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…f0f2backed Musetti | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58dd…0ed1backed Medvedev | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b8…4d0bbacked Musetti | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…fe3dbacked Musetti | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Medvedev | 36c | 110.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked Medvedev | 31c | 106.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Medvedev | 11c | 103.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Musetti | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…7c5abacked Medvedev | 37c | 55.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d8a5backed Musetti | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…eb8abacked Musetti | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…d982backed Musetti | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed Musetti | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…aa3dbacked Medvedev | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Musetti | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 177 | 67.2%119 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…1c30backed Medvedev | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…db88backed Medvedev | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…3668backed Musetti | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Musetti | 70c | 27.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…7336backed Musetti | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.