Lol · resolved market
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf42fe0da35dbcb8e27a088d4685120fa9169ef960245cdb5436f2a8cb9ca71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikiof Crusaders, Bubliki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2272…76bcbacked Crusaders | 19c | 204.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Crusaders | 60c | 156.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 332 | 37.7%125 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…49c7backed Bubliki | 40c | 143.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Crusaders | 42c | 137.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Bubliki | 75c | 133.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 392 | 66.6%261 W · 131 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…4292backed Bubliki | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Bubliki | 48c | 60.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…e855backed Crusaders | 75c | 40.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…9896backed Bubliki | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 506 | 46%233 W · 273 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Crusaders | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,247 | 52.8%659 W · 588 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…ba1fbacked Crusaders | 67c | 32.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Crusaders | 40c | 32.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +24.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed Crusaders | 45c | 30.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed Crusaders | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 188 | 63.3%119 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 4 Winnerthis page
- Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?Yes won
- LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL PlayoffsBubliki won
- LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 1 WinnerBubliki won
- LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 2 WinnerBubliki won
- LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 3 WinnerCrusaders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.