Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c2eae4b19a8032b54e17c029b21539aa92c18d2384f3e33ed0b65e45753adbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 261.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 196.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 73c | 137.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 129.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 21c | 120.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.25 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 104.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 61c | 102.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 39c | 70.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 68.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 69c | 54.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 40.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 37c | 38.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 30c | 38.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 57c | 38.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 27c | 37.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 52c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 41c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 31.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 31.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 61c | 25.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 61c | 24.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 47c | 22.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 55c | 20.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.