College Football · resolved market
Will Michigan beat Illinois?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c5b955aa7fed5edc82d7e3fb7a04b7280f2a8caae59033fdd90bed60c8aedfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Michigan, Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Illinois | 59c | 4,059$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.88 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Michigan | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…39cfbacked Michigan | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Illinois | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Michigan | 64c | 857.22$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.15 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Michigan | 20c | 743.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Michigan | 65c | 453.96$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.07 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Illinois | 35c | 304.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Illinois | 60c | 275.82$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Michigan | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Michigan | 67c | 149.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Michigan | 61c | 142.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Michigan | 42c | 106.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Illinois | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked Michigan | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x486c…3d03backed Illinois | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Illinois | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…8882backed Illinois | 69c | 58.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…c448backed Illinois | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…3ce8backed Illinois | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Michigan | 48c | 52.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Illinois | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Michigan | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d1…ebd2backed Michigan | 67c | 37.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Illinois | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed3…6334backed Michigan | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michigan beat Illinois?this page
- Will Michigan beat Illinois by 4 or more points?No won
- Will there be 45 or more combined points scored?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.