Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c6f21408a7fc529cc3766c9c297a95eddb8d05276e0871235fbd56e28bae1a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 6c | 498.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.72 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 7c | 465.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 341.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 6c | 324.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 20c | 289$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 285.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 283.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 234.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.53 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 73c | 231.12$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 15c | 206.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.29 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 75c | 160.23$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f3…79bdbacked Yes | 7c | 152.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 149$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed Yes | 50c | 139.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 9c | 130.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 124.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 118$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…bed8backed Yes | 20c | 108.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 18c | 106.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 91.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 50c | 86.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 77.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 67.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 79c | 55.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 67c | 49.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 77c | 38.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.