Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x604db85454d9aa5e656bd31459c406c0cd4f8cdf3f61230afd273a17ed1684be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 540$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b5…60d5backed Yes | 39c | 511.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 61c | 485.62$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.06 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 46c | 285$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.29 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 26c | 213.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 47c | 167.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 61c | 166.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 166.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 75c | 166.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 67c | 148.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 29c | 140.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 15c | 131.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 52c | 119.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 34c | 116.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 54c | 94.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 76c | 90.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 69c | 81.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 70.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 67.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 45c | 66.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 29c | 51.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 48.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 52c | 47.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 31c | 43.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 63c | 37.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 38c | 36.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…c814backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 31.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…3bdbbacked Yes | 33c | 30.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 69c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 61c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or higher on February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.