Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ca6011302b1ac0faf4558f02a2b6fc4c2a95fafc30b1ff94b7a1cdbb7163379
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Virginia Cavaliers, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 4,410$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.48 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed SMU Mustangs | 46c | 3,534$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.56 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 1,943$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.58 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 1,801$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.45 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 920$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.4 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 912.5$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.29 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 659$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 46c | 619.88$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.77 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Virginia Cavaliers | 53c | 562.61$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.43 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 292$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 284.44$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed SMU Mustangs | 46c | 250.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 235.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 200.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Virginia Cavaliers | 57c | 198.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 172$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.74 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked SMU Mustangs | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed SMU Mustangs | 43c | 83.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 383 | 43.6%167 W · 216 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…e89bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 169 | 52.7%89 W · 80 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 605 | 48.9%296 W · 309 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Virginia Cavaliers | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…165fbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 54c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 51c | 19.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU MustangsVirginia Cavaliers won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 152.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 153.5Under won
- Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 154.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.