Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd5a97d7946da901199fb82a12931c000a959361ea0dd7f58a9a1ac2b2e38f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 21c | 4,709$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.17 | 659 | 43.9%289 W · 370 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 79c | 3,554$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.3 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 18c | 1,785$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.14 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Over | 12c | 1,013$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 25c | 787.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 77c | 311.12$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 22c | 149.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 22c | 91.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 11c | 90.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 385 | 26.2%101 W · 284 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Over | 27c | 37.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Over | 27c | 37.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5this page
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Team to AdvanceKKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: FC Thun (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: FC Thun (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)FC Thun won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)FC Thun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.