Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59a82a20065a0b20ba10e50b8199eea6a9d2ef0e07f51ac23153eb022838a7ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 65c | 3,848$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.25 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 1,548$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.51 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 36c | 942.54$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.59 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 713.02$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.56 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 65c | 555$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…9f44backed Under | 38c | 490.21$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 62c | 309.86$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 325 | 47.7%155 W · 170 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 275$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 273.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 65c | 206.53$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 36c | 174.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 157.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Under | 39c | 151.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 120.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…10f2backed Over | 63c | 110.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 104.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 61c | 72.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 33c | 56.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under | 37c | 42.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 36c | 39.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 57c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 32.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 35c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 38c | 26.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 63c | 24.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 251 | 41%103 W · 148 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca27…6f19backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: Team to AdvanceKKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: FC Thun (-1.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: FC Thun (-2.5)KKS Lech Poznań won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5)FC Thun won
- Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-2.5)FC Thun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.