Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd7407e430a0f0ae508760abed8696558c9b8f5a09033860d1a624c57a224fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ff0…053cbacked Under | 50c | 197.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…fea6backed Under | 50c | 197.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e94…21b8backed Under | 50c | 194.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…15e2backed Under | 50c | 194.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d110backed Under | 50c | 193.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…e0fcbacked Under | 50c | 193.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…1cedbacked Under | 50c | 192.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…39dabacked Under | 50c | 191.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…6a96backed Under | 50c | 190.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…6f34backed Under | 50c | 189.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc689…51e3backed Under | 50c | 189.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…1100backed Under | 50c | 188.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…f72ebacked Under | 50c | 187.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…fcdcbacked Under | 50c | 186.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…d18cbacked Under | 50c | 186.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…28aebacked Under | 50c | 186.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…a93cbacked Under | 50c | 186.61$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…31d8backed Under | 50c | 186.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…249bbacked Under | 50c | 185.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d0…ceb7backed Under | 50c | 185.18$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ef9ebacked Under | 50c | 185.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…e22ebacked Under | 50c | 184.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…ff0bbacked Under | 50c | 184.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…a834backed Under | 50c | 184.18$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…e145backed Under | 50c | 184.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x533a…1676backed Under | 50c | 183.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…2838backed Under | 50c | 183.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…af51backed Under | 50c | 183.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…7b54backed Under | 50c | 182.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…43b6backed Under | 50c | 182.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…71b9backed Under | 50c | 182.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…cc3abacked Under | 50c | 181.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…5907backed Under | 50c | 181.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…866fbacked Under | 50c | 181.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…0907backed Under | 50c | 181.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…27afbacked Under | 50c | 181.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce1…4304backed Under | 50c | 181.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…bf96backed Under | 50c | 181$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb7…50b4backed Under | 50c | 180.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…3ea0backed Under | 50c | 180.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…521ebacked Under | 50c | 180.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…740dbacked Under | 50c | 180.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…57babacked Under | 50c | 180.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51b…d43dbacked Under | 50c | 179.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked Under | 50c | 179.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…2df3backed Under | 50c | 179.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…5280backed Under | 50c | 179.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…6f37backed Under | 50c | 178.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…1d7cbacked Under | 50c | 178.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…a5a4backed Under | 50c | 175.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…6582backed Under | 50c | 174.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…3f99backed Under | 50c | 174.61$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…c973backed Under | 50c | 174.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…5c16backed Under | 50c | 172.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…59c8backed Under | 50c | 170.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfd…72debacked Under | 50c | 170.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1494…0593backed Under | 50c | 170.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…c7c0backed Under | 50c | 170.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…f70ebacked Under | 50c | 166.16$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…0b41backed Under | 50c | 165.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.