Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b858e52a6bbc0bd8bb73a956b17ea2b8ba5f80673245c8ce3b5a49a6493a907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Over | 29c | 1,728$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 40c | 661$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.28 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 538.49$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.27 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 34c | 525.11$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.18 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 55c | 512.1$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.44 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Over | 45c | 401$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 48c | 299.84$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 71c | 290.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 231.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…f9e0backed Under | 50c | 188.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…1100backed Under | 50c | 186.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfd…f70ebacked Under | 50c | 185.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…a5a4backed Under | 50c | 185$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…7f14backed Under | 50c | 184.7$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…aa04backed Under | 50c | 184.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…cc3abacked Under | 50c | 184.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…36e0backed Under | 50c | 183.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…efadbacked Under | 50c | 183.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…ccecbacked Under | 50c | 183.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…e0fabacked Under | 50c | 183.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…0142backed Under | 50c | 183.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…5c16backed Under | 50c | 182.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…4bc6backed Under | 50c | 181.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb98…be21backed Under | 50c | 180.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 43c | 166.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 164.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 71c | 141.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 42c | 111.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Over | 45c | 111.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 14c | 109.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 27c | 99.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 41c | 99.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Over | 41c | 99.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 41c | 99.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 24c | 64.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 74c | 56.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Over | 46c | 54.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 42c | 52.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 77c | 51.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…bc8cbacked Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 56c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 57c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.