Asian League · resolved market
Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432dbea1f2dd7e2dec46ca0c7eb05e03e88be7342514c13425ee2433421a0768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kashiwa Reysolof FC Mito Holly Hock, Kashiwa Reysol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5c8…872bbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 225.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b6…e145backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 224.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…834dbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 220.26$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…5cb2backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 220.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…8e97backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 219.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3227…6df7backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 219.13$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…467dbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 219.03$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…57babacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 218.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…d18cbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 218.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…40eabacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 217.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…4471backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 217.42$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…4ba4backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 217.19$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533a…1676backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 217.15$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…5280backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 215.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…b786backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 215.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…6179backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 214.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…866fbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 214.74$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…9a7dbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 213.55$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…ce7fbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 212.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…0142backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 212.78$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…8be9backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 212.12$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…06d2backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 211.79$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…ff0bbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 211.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…1cb4backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 210.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…a200backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 210.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…0cb6backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 209.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce1…4304backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 209.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…b17fbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 209.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…13f0backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 208.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +600.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…3870backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 208.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…fc15backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…821dbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.92$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…24fbbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…ef9ebacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.2$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…a834backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…249bbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f25…4938backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d0…ceb7backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 207.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…f8c7backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 206.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…6a9fbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 206.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1469…3a8abacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 206.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…77bdbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 206.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…cb42backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 206.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…c973backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 205.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0029…80ecbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 205.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x911c…f546backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 205.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…fea6backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 204.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…6690backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 204.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…1ea4backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 204.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…7b54backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 204.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…e22ebacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 202.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…bda4backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 202.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…71b9backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 202.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…d23dbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 201.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…28aebacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 199.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…01d3backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 199.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…cc3abacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 196.21$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…5195backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 195.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…5907backed Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 193.83$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…fcdcbacked Kashiwa Reysol | 49c | 192.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5)this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.