Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AS Roma win on 2025-02-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ce867c7d6814fbdec3ab736cd61e30b7d9bf45974db6f2d0128a70c31f022c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 22c | 6,673$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.61 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 29c | 3,323$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.48 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 77c | 3,090$2,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.07 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 50c | 1,043$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.73 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 51c | 988.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 45c | 662.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 57c | 302.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…b7ffbacked Yes | 49c | 112.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…3d33backed Yes | 50c | 100.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed Yes | 75c | 87.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…3c61backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-02-20?this page
- Will AS Roma vs. FC Porto end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-02-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.