Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d437b2cb3ceca0cae9301af578300e8d0f05fec8189b46bc63099fe2bf8bd49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61ed…5f52backed No | 0c | 13,018$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 76c | 529.09$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 62c | 419.95$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 29c | 296.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.34 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked Yes | 80c | 281.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 277$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 31c | 212.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 53c | 182.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 46c | 131.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed No | 50c | 114.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 114.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 111.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 91.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 38c | 74.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 52c | 74.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 20c | 68.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 62c | 63.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 62.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 30c | 59.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed Yes | 52c | 56.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 55.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 47c | 53.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 42c | 49.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 36c | 46.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…b173backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 32c | 43.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 33c | 42.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 32c | 42.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 70c | 41.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 41.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3584…98a6backed Yes | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 57c | 34.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 74c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Yes | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…cd5dbacked Yes | 72c | 30.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 57c | 29.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 39c | 26.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfef…5837backed No | 49c | 22.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…cae3backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…59f7backed Yes | 76c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 70c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 79c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 37°F or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.