College Football · resolved market
Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d69b7a53151394a2a14f1cabcb853c04e1765fe80f12dfecad07e21cf8b2223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UL Monroeof Arkansas State, UL Monroe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed UL Monroe | 47c | 3,261$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.82 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arkansas State | 60c | 1,765$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.93 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arkansas State | 67c | 1,157$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.48 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arkansas State | 36c | 1,061$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.35 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked UL Monroe | 53c | 1,014$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.02 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arkansas State | 47c | 306.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Arkansas State | 45c | 282.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas State | 48c | 229$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Arkansas State | 7c | 207$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed UL Monroe | 46c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed UL Monroe | 52c | 149.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed UL Monroe | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…f279backed Arkansas State | 37c | 108.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed UL Monroe | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Arkansas State | 36c | 85.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UL Monroe | 53c | 79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…8743backed Arkansas State | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.