College Football · resolved market
Will Penn State beat Wisconsin?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d797d34fd33d3a9996199807940a66d28caef3bc5cc2408bc4ed3397ffdfd31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Penn State, Wisconsin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Wisconsin | 30c | 2,971$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Penn State | 76c | 1,389$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.74 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc5…2ffabacked Penn State | 71c | 1,106$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…62e5backed Penn State | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Penn State | 58c | 791.78$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.55 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Wisconsin | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Wisconsin | 41c | 290$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Wisconsin | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Penn State | 67c | 167.66$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Wisconsin | 33c | 151.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Wisconsin | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Wisconsin | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Penn State | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f3…27c9backed Wisconsin | 33c | 103.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b34…2eaabacked Wisconsin | 36c | 74.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Penn State | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Wisconsin | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…6ec7backed Wisconsin | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…58cebacked Wisconsin | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed Wisconsin | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked Penn State | 75c | 40.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Penn State | 65c | 38.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…f8f9backed Wisconsin | 33c | 33.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Penn State | 71c | 32.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…1e19backed Wisconsin | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…16ebbacked Penn State | 76c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Penn State beat Wisconsin?this page
- Will Penn State beat Wisconsin by 7 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.