Asian League · resolved market
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d7dc95ef80cb8edd271a91b7701ef932cfc51248cc3d5064d9ff8efbadd581a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,975 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e19…59f3backed Yes | 20c | 11,195$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50cf…1cc3backed No | 80c | 3,226$2,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5791…6391backed No | 80c | 3,034$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…217ebacked No | 80c | 3,024$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…fbb4backed No | 80c | 1,920$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,242$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 923.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…81ecbacked No | 78c | 194.41$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 79c | 180.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed No | 77c | 88.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 81.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 68.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b48…40febacked Yes | 22c | 50.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 30.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.