Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d9727b5dfc94c0379bcd35eb08180613d1adbfbe5e3a7c0128d04676be0161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,784 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 36c | 3,941$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.98 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 29c | 1,249$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.36 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 1,240$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.75 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 7c | 979.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 13c | 693.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 63c | 491.3$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.76 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 21c | 305.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed No | 40c | 230.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 36c | 200.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked No | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…855fbacked Yes | 64c | 159.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 65c | 147.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Yes | 62c | 146.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 36c | 146.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…59c2backed Yes | 63c | 139.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 37c | 85.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 72c | 74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Yes | 62c | 72.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 27c | 72.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 26c | 67.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 41c | 61.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 38c | 56.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 50.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 38c | 34.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ea…225bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…0635backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Yes | 63c | 28.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Yes | 64c | 26.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 76c | 24.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…4d26backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…a5f5backed Yes | 71c | 22.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…9b59backed Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f21…e36bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.