CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9db3be7f2dbc794d48bcb2a1c65ba5fb4652ac0230534397f7ddcc251ed843d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Aurora Gaming | 79c | 6,410$5,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.17 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a63…fc03backed Team Nemesis | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 421 | 42%177 W · 244 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…5dc6backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 2,257$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.81 | 134 | 54.5%73 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora Gaming | 78c | 1,514$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.9 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 1,155$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.46 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Team Nemesis | 3c | 1,108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0b…f901backed Team Nemesis | 20c | 1,017$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.41 | 359 | 53.2%191 W · 168 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Team Nemesis | 22c | 999.98$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 752 | 45.5%342 W · 410 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 902.78$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 222 | 66.7%148 W · 74 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…bc19backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 159 | 62.9%100 W · 59 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…fda7backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 745.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 714.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.36 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 709.36$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.81 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 540.3$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.16 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 508.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Nemesis | 14c | 507.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 12c | 490.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 379.76$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Team Nemesis | 44c | 225.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 197.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 149.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 242 | 60.3%146 W · 96 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Aurora Gaming | 26c | 131.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Team Nemesis | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Aurora Gaming | 73c | 115$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…dac0backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 414 | 75.4%312 W · 102 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…9ff4backed Team Nemesis | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Team Nemesis | 31c | 95.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 90.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 389 | 54.5%212 W · 177 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…32d2backed Aurora Gaming | 76c | 79.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Aurora Gaming | 64c | 77.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 557 | 49.7%277 W · 280 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…25f8backed Aurora Gaming | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed Team Nemesis | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 593 | 54.8%325 W · 268 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…de4abacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Aurora Gaming | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora Gaming | 58c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 392 | 58.2%228 W · 164 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 587 | 55.9%328 W · 259 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Aurora Gaming | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 368 | 56.8%209 W · 159 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Aurora Gaming | 78c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…da12backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Aurora Gaming | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…482cbacked Aurora Gaming | 69c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group AAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5)Aurora Gaming won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)Team Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.