Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc5a70df5d090dfe17d530e32a15562a87841038f63449146b92da1f8dd5429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Juan Manuel La Sernaof Ignacio Monzon, Juan Manuel La Serna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Ignacio Monzon | 10c | 1,933$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.3 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Ignacio Monzon | 22c | 1,383$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Ignacio Monzon | 11c | 1,278$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Ignacio Monzon | 14c | 897.73$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ignacio Monzon | 19c | 718.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Ignacio Monzon | 20c | 399.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 365 | 35.1%128 W · 237 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Ignacio Monzon | 21c | 391.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 372.56$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 316.57$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Ignacio Monzon | 10c | 212.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Ignacio Monzon | 13c | 160.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Ignacio Monzon | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ignacio Monzon | 12c | 141.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 79c | 136$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 996 | 49.5%493 W · 503 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Ignacio Monzon | 11c | 131.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Ignacio Monzon | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Ignacio Monzon | 19c | 128.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 123.46$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Ignacio Monzon | 20c | 123.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 222 | 35.1%78 W · 144 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ignacio Monzon | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Ignacio Monzon | 11c | 99.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 280 | 48.9%137 W · 143 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 78c | 99.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Ignacio Monzon | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Ignacio Monzon | 16c | 94.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Ignacio Monzon | 16c | 93.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Ignacio Monzon | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 568 | 48.9%278 W · 290 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 85.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,198 | 52.4%628 W · 570 L | +28.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 568 | 53.9%306 W · 262 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a8…93b2backed Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 80c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Juan Manuel La Serna | 74c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.