South American Leagues · resolved market
LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dee31d7f28514643654a0597eff5f91452de1171c958b0eb685ee67d88b5ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 42c | 2,946$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.37 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 52c | 1,401$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…8904backed Over | 48c | 1,208$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 59c | 1,044$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.22 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 58c | 904.35$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.14 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Under | 53c | 630.3$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over | 47c | 586.9$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.84 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 48c | 330.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 58c | 329.86$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.54 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 276.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 58c | 216$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 209$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 9c | 147.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 58c | 135.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 53c | 123.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…2712backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 23c | 108.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 39.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Over | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 53c | 33.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…ab74backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5this page
- LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5Over won
- LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús: O/U 3.5Under won
- LDU de Quito vs. CA Lanús: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: LDU de Quito (-1.5)LDU de Quito won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.