College Football · resolved market
Spread: Southern Miss (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e387b76ca80f80a1b8bb4a4caf242c7d6b17353ea5ccb743ad69ba44a4d27f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Southern Missof Southern Miss, UL Monroe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UL Monroe | 50c | 76,657$38,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,388.17 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Southern Miss | 50c | 60,692$30,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,233.99 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Southern Miss | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Southern Miss | 50c | 8,120$4,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed UL Monroe | 51c | 2,110$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.15 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Southern Miss | 50c | 1,326$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Southern Miss | 49c | 1,175$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.55 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked UL Monroe | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Southern Miss | 48c | 792.04$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.86 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Southern Miss | 50c | 520$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Southern Miss | 54c | 212.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed UL Monroe | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed UL Monroe | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Southern Miss | 51c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Southern Miss | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Southern Miss | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Southern Miss (-13.5)this page
- O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Southern Miss (-12.5)Southern Miss won
- Spread: Southern Miss (-14.5)Southern Miss won
- UL Monroe vs. Southern MissSouthern Miss won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.