Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e3e9bcd5a2e36dad1bcdc4fefc5b649ea03967d6df5f971067fe61061f8a1b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LGD Gamingof LGD Gaming, Lindorfitos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3868…7ecfbacked Lindorfitos | 14c | 2,002$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Lindorfitos | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…f65bbacked Lindorfitos | 8c | 1,729$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.44 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Lindorfitos | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Lindorfitos | 6c | 877.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Lindorfitos | 14c | 600.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Lindorfitos | 8c | 544.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Lindorfitos | 11c | 505.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Lindorfitos | 9c | 371.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Lindorfitos | 4c | 304.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Lindorfitos | 10c | 280.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lindorfitos | 11c | 227.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Lindorfitos | 13c | 213.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Lindorfitos | 11c | 172.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…a45fbacked Lindorfitos | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Lindorfitos | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Lindorfitos | 16c | 65.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.