Tennis · resolved market
ITF Maanshan: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Hiroki Moriya
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e482ae71f3a91d614e7dd0e8c2fde33f92cc538246767bb010464cb5df3a997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiroki Moriyaof Kuan-Yi Lee, Hiroki Moriya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kuan-Yi Lee | 28c | 320.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Hiroki Moriya | 67c | 299.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hiroki Moriya | 66c | 203.06$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hiroki Moriya | 44c | 196.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Kuan-Yi Lee | 37c | 154.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Hiroki Moriya | 62c | 144.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kuan-Yi Lee | 34c | 113.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…9433backed Kuan-Yi Lee | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kuan-Yi Lee | 35c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kuan-Yi Lee | 66c | 70.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Hiroki Moriya | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kuan-Yi Lee | 21c | 59.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Hiroki Moriya | 69c | 56.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Kuan-Yi Lee | 50c | 50.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Kuan-Yi Lee | 31c | 45.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Hiroki Moriya | 70c | 40.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…ab8dbacked Kuan-Yi Lee | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Kuan-Yi Lee | 53c | 36.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 282 | 64.2%181 W · 101 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Hiroki Moriya | 68c | 27.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.