Premier League · resolved market
Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e8c9c92573a71aceb648b75619a0b28bc3485a0dd2d1e577f791d581dc9734f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 54c | 4,298$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.84 | 192 | 53.1%102 W · 90 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 34c | 2,237$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.63 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,092$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.94 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 47c | 1,073$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.31 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 54c | 803$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.38 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked No | 73c | 600$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 47c | 481.96$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d44…2f97backed No | 57c | 348.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 54c | 342.38$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 292.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 41c | 239.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 197.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 56c | 179.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 46c | 152$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 73c | 137.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 54c | 137$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 101 | 30.7%31 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 39c | 124.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 31.2%89 W · 196 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…c3a6backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 47c | 89.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1d…c541backed Yes | 45c | 36.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Watford FC win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will Watford FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.