College Football · resolved market
Troy vs. Texas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ec01d3e5f28c6e546857ded64fda6609eca8f7d74f2cf24c7f0d2d5bc062457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Troyof Troy, Texas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Troy | 27c | 12,061$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,851.07 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Texas State | 74c | 10,578$7,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,785.35 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Texas State | 73c | 6,118$4,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,466.31 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Troy | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,650 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Troy | 27c | 3,015$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.77 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Texas State | 73c | 2,810$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,038.75 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Texas State | 73c | 2,596$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.88 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Troy | 2c | 2,042$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.2 | 86 | 29.1%25 W · 61 L | +15.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Troy | 38c | 1,321$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.22 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Troy | 38c | 1,042$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.71 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Texas State | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas State | 76c | 923$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.15 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Texas State | 73c | 688.37$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Troy | 18c | 546.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.76 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Troy | 35c | 543.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.39 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Troy | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas State | 52c | 485.06$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.75 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Troy | 24c | 464$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.64 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Troy | 24c | 326$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Troy | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.4 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Troy | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7118…f6adbacked Troy | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +52%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Troy | 28c | 135.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Troy | 36c | 127.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Texas State | 74c | 102.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Texas State | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Troy | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Troy | 27c | 67.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Troy | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Texas State | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Texas State | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Troy vs. Texas Statethis page
- Spread: Texas State (-7.5)Troy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.