MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ec56c00e8797c427655b4d6c6910a3a4de6c0532c82b18ac0fd92fa070f4a56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cardinals | 47c | 24,105$11,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,775.65 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Reds | 53c | 22,312$11,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,825.36 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Cardinals | 48c | 6,376$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,343.32 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cardinals | 45c | 2,812$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.49 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 55c | 2,510$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.26 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…c8c1backed Reds | 54c | 2,222$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…0dcebacked Cardinals | 48c | 2,211$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 46c | 1,996$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.42 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed Reds | 51c | 1,928$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.35 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Reds | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 54c | 882.11$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.11 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Reds | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Reds | 51c | 471.91$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.67 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Reds | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Reds | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cardinals | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…9ca0backed Cardinals | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Reds | 53c | 68.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 55c | 52.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 42c | 48.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 46c | 43.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cardinals | 55c | 41.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Reds | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Cardinals | 51c | 20.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Reds | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.