South American Leagues · resolved market
EC Bahia leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f2425df49ab9e2f7e0e9a9791629a213b88a2d689f36d2742112f11e343a121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 15c | 838.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 45c | 288.72$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 55c | 272.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.72 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Yes | 65c | 230$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 17c | 191.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked No | 15c | 133.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 52c | 112.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes | 52c | 102.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 48c | 95.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 22c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 48c | 54.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 48c | 38.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 31c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7d…96a3backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 133 | 73.7%98 W · 35 L | +22.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc783…8941backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- EC Bahia leading at halftime?this page
- EC Bahia vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.