Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f32b3102815add6b68baa28d3150c9062b9be71f8a49fd597169b95a29c9080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x303e…c54abacked Down | 6c | 7,150$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…b6e8backed Down | 5c | 3,551$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.13 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed Down | 7c | 3,040$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Down | 4c | 2,705$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 6c | 2,218$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.56 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Down | 1c | 1,759$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…39b2backed Down | 6c | 1,472$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Down | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Down | 6c | 710.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Down | 6c | 699.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…50aebacked Down | 7c | 620.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Down | 7c | 499.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…8f0cbacked Down | 19c | 405.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…006cbacked Down | 6c | 399.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 18c | 381.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…f055backed Down | 5c | 367.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Down | 6c | 290.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…112dbacked Down | 13c | 238.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 5c | 220.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Down | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…6a5abacked Down | 6c | 161.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Down | 8c | 155.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…4035backed Up | 75c | 155.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d3…b477backed Down | 36c | 66.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Up | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Up | 78c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.