Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f33b0682b9413c7fa7a6ef107de889d58c0b6bfe721c53d890afdc5e7fdf62a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Estrela da Amadoraof FC Alverca, CF Estrela da Amadora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Alverca | 22c | 1,410$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.78 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 78c | 986.36$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed FC Alverca | 22c | 132.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 78c | 127.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 126.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 57.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…200bbacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 24.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 322 | 57.8%186 W · 136 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)this page
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: CF Estrela da Amadora O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5)FC Alverca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.