Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59853025dad775a04e5d60c3e0d0e3429766a5ba82fe43a7a5298ef6d66a74be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a39…b0b9backed Over | 46c | 33,960$15,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,421.89 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 4,767$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.28 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 56c | 4,110$2,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.68 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 54c | 4,100$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 2,902$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.98 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,366$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.98 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 54c | 1,597$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.13 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 54c | 1,568$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.72 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 44c | 965.28$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.81 | 197 | 29.9%59 W · 138 L | -21.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d0…2c89backed Under | 54c | 690.19$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 54c | 686$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.84 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 54c | 686$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.84 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 54c | 673.76$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.17 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 648.55$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.22 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 55c | 575.75$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.66 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 55c | 454.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 54c | 251$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 35c | 236.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.44 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 58c | 203$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 54c | 174$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 54c | 156$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 81.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 75.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 36c | 70.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 244 | 66%161 W · 83 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 60.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 63c | 54.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…53c9backed Under | 54c | 50.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 54c | 49.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 56c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 35.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 54c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 54c | 26.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Under | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 54c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: CF Estrela da Amadora O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5)FC Alverca won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.