Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c675c83b53a92f3e79a076356d212182160161a4bb26ab35b6a1c79208caabe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 73c | 12,311$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,999.96 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 27c | 3,706$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.27 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +19.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 28c | 3,619$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.51 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 3,419$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.32 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 11c | 1,148$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.26 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 26c | 1,053$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.22 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 26c | 1,053$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.22 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 728$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.36 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 26c | 572.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.34 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +8.9wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 26c | 530.08$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 28c | 482.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.24 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 480.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.39 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 395.98$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.22 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked Over | 28c | 388.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 26c | 278.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.95 | 138 | 60.1%83 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 26c | 274.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.82 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 243.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 219.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.72 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed Under | 79c | 211$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 26c | 192$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 21c | 165.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 27c | 122$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 40c | 121.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 84.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 73.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 59c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Over | 27c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 27c | 62.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 60.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 67c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 244 | 66%161 W · 83 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 59c | 41.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 322 | 57.8%186 W · 136 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 40c | 35.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 59c | 34.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 59c | 28.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 351 | 63.5%223 W · 128 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Under | 46c | 25.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed Over | 54c | 22.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301d…81a5backed Over | 58c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Over | 59c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3950…0d49backed Over | 55c | 19.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 75c | 19.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b3…3783backed Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: CF Estrela da Amadora O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5)FC Alverca won
- Spread: FC Alverca (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.