Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $130 January 12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3af62860bb25b8daa8045ee6e59110f53832e583ae951e8eb9b566393a4bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9480…a200backed No | 5c | 15,766$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 6c | 7,599$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,167.8 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…324bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,158$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,019.8 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 4cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…febfbacked Yes | 10c | 2,811$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +399.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked No | 1c | 2,567$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,063$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.92 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 8c | 1,079$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.5 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 501.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.1 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…08b1backed Yes | 23c | 478.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 445.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.11 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…7baebacked No | 5c | 363.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…6ebfbacked Yes | 25c | 360$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 221.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.55 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 11c | 136.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +131%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…0507backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 12c | 88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $130 January 12-18?this page
- Will Solana dip to $100 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana dip to $110 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana dip to $120 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana dip to $90 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana reach $180 January 12-18?No won
- Will Solana reach $210 January 12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.