CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f3ca94407ecc6e4a18bb4cdfc5e75f9c72642eac6b876c2be61d58d47989f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, AM Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 63c | 1,475$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.94 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed AM Gaming | 41c | 978.39$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AM Gaming | 40c | 664.08$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.85 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 64c | 475.8$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.17 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed AM Gaming | 45c | 262.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766a…ae64backed illwill | 51c | 218.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed AM Gaming | 35c | 198.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…dd59backed illwill | 64c | 107.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed AM Gaming | 44c | 100.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed illwill | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…5308backed AM Gaming | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed AM Gaming | 43c | 96.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked illwill | 36c | 87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked illwill | 57c | 85.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked AM Gaming | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed illwill | 73c | 75.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked AM Gaming | 25c | 72.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed illwill | 43c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked illwill | 76c | 63.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed illwill | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked illwill | 60c | 58.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AM Gaming | 48c | 51.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed illwill | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed AM Gaming | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…064abacked illwill | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…1496backed AM Gaming | 53c | 41.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed illwill | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed illwill | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…574cbacked illwill | 74c | 38.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed illwill | 52c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 180 | 57.2%103 W · 77 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked AM Gaming | 41c | 31.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed illwill | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked AM Gaming | 48c | 26.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…6ababacked illwill | 72c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed illwill | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsillwill won
- Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5)illwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.