NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f89729c36363aff609677177a8e45fbff4294b3d6d2a616f64aca3e3458fcac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Wild, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Wild | 36c | 11,977$4,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,315.22 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabres | 64c | 9,920$6,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,571.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Wild | 35c | 1,520$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.94 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Sabres | 64c | 1,110$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Sabres | 64c | 984.37$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.37 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sabres | 64c | 511$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Sabres | 64c | 323$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.88 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Wild | 41c | 306$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Sabres | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Sabres | 59c | 297$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sabres | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Sabres | 63c | 125.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Wild | 36c | 112.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sabres | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Wild | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Wild | 37c | 47.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Sabres | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Sabres | 66c | 36.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…4fa8backed Wild | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Sabres | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Sabres | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Sabres | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Sabres | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…7df4backed Sabres | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. WildSabres won
- Sabres vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.