Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 165.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc6593181aedd545102258b5e4b8ec99e661f8856aa26378c982d7108144645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 51c | 43,240$21,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,957.45 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 50c | 18,500$9,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,280 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Under | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 49c | 2,486$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.86 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 50c | 1,861$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.54 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,788$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.66 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 1,750$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 49c | 555$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.65 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 50c | 277.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 50c | 231.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e1…4cc7backed Under | 50c | 99.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 91.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…a56abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Under | 50c | 24.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 165.5this page
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red WolvesMarshall Thundering Herd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.