Middle East · resolved market
Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd20ccea5230a40d27c1fe9e2edde4bf1a507bb1138fb1fd4ee018295516f15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 15c | 1,105$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…4b36backed Yes | 16c | 980.51$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 8c | 683.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 312.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…c8a5backed Yes | 14c | 285.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 9c | 225.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 202.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2136…51b8backed Yes | 13c | 151.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…ca54backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 11c | 126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by September 30?this page
- Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.