Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe4b7a88cc91dd7129d6efeedbc499dda5f0807e06fa6dd15f238d7fc627c1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,378 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 1c | 2,719$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 2,495$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 47c | 2,152$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 18c | 1,248$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.8 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Over | 63c | 791.6$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Under | 54c | 669.83$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 603.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.32 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 383.01$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.68 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 10c | 263.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +257.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +282.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 10c | 235.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Under | 66c | 154.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 54c | 126.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed Under | 54c | 101.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 14cpaid | +535.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 32c | 73.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 46c | 65.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…7c23backed Over | 24c | 61.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 23c | 57.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 54c | 57.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…10b2backed Over | 57c | 52.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 47c | 42.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 53c | 42.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…eaccbacked Over | 69c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 25.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1012…b940backed Under | 77c | 20.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 64c | 20.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5this page
- Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Le Havre AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.