Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ff021664c0b8bb9c1932de2f4c27f443d2423bc9a273e4988d0da1d992c08a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 1,610$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…0f82backed Yes | 30c | 1,122$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…2b2abacked Yes | 31c | 645.7$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 6c | 600$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 72c | 559.76$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.82 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 395$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +798.5%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 119.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 73c | 111.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 33c | 109.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 20c | 98.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 27c | 88.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 65.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed Yes | 27c | 55.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?Yes won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.