Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf957ca50bc227fd686470d93564940f73bdd76371736ff112cbdf3e6221a6520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 785.9$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.12 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1630backed No | 72c | 325.6$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.43 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 37c | 314.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +798.5%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3111backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 46c | 179.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 73c | 171$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 67c | 149.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 34c | 109.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 109.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 35c | 74.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Yes | 40c | 72.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 66c | 70.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…514fbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 31.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 72c | 24.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.