Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb1e514fef765cae060e87c3194f17389c53e660490f4f204d62f7c0c230ed23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9bc…3498backed Yes | 5c | 8,460$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 65c | 4,003$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.28 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed No | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 48c | 2,444$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.16 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed Yes | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes | 12c | 1,400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 72c | 1,088$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.44 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 1,059$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.86 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 819.41$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…2b2abacked Yes | 46c | 646.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 454.25$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 46c | 439.95$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…8e04backed No | 58c | 429.29$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 47c | 393.36$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.53 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 376.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 44c | 302.92$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 36c | 279.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 47c | 237.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 43c | 209.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 70c | 189.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 43c | 153.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed Yes | 39c | 112.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 38c | 101.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 57c | 90.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca96…a629backed Yes | 14c | 85.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes | 47c | 78.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Yes | 43c | 60.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed No | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed No | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 53c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 46c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 68c | 28.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 46c | 26.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed No | 54c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No | 54c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.