Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ff68efe196b5aadae5b5ee0007d215a5a77d681f774b09140b0df84d1e8a233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 32c | 506.54$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 72c | 210.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 158.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 138.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 111.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 102.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked No | 75c | 85.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 73.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed No | 71c | 69.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…d09cbacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 64.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 21c | 57.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 51.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 27c | 50.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…2bd9backed Yes | 30c | 48.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 48.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 35c | 45.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 42.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 33c | 32.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 27.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 71c | 25.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 69c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 75c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.