Commodities · resolved market
Silver (SI) Up or Down on December 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa024383d7c72d027230e899f9c4e7e9672c63b0ea7df2748e28a05e2d4e80af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3365…32e3backed Up | 4c | 3,345$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Down | 67c | 510.32$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f5b9backed Down | 35c | 360$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3611…ecb0backed Up | 65c | 360$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Down | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…0503backed Up | 20c | 100.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…66debacked Up | 74c | 67.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 26c | 60.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…c464backed Up | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Down | 51c | 23.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Up | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.