Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs strongboys - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa031aa398800272aabeddf7ee7491e0b04dd3967e6858c9769b6c7c37e49b6e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed strongboys | 0c | 7,338$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked strongboys | 44c | 6,050$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.27 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 1,600$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Team Spirit | 47c | 1,448$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.69 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…c3a9backed strongboys | 51c | 1,354$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit | 49c | 1,260$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.54 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 1,243$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.61 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 948.77$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.05 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed strongboys | 15c | 560$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit | 47c | 499.64$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.87 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked strongboys | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.82 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit | 63c | 381.6$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Team Spirit | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…942bbacked strongboys | 49c | 216.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Team Spirit | 58c | 172.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Team Spirit | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Team Spirit | 80c | 137.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Spirit | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked strongboys | 41c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Spirit | 49c | 81.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked strongboys | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Spirit | 63c | 77.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Team Spirit | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 42.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Team Spirit | 46c | 37.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…77bdbacked strongboys | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x957c…2965backed Team Spirit | 63c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Team Spirit | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked strongboys | 34c | 30.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed strongboys | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Team Spirit | 49c | 26.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs strongboys (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs strongboys - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs strongboys (+1.5)Team Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.