Fifa International · resolved market
Will the match between Serbia and Switzerland end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09a0aaa5b7b070a76f848a7301b36e8d554c84130a7e68ab977baf777233ebf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e9…8b5bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,560$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 67c | 69.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 168 | 35.1%59 W · 109 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…85f4backed No | 68c | 65.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbb…81c4backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…29aebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf082…822cbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Serbia and Switzerland end in a draw? this page
- Will Serbia beat Switzerland? Yes won
- Will Switzerland beat Serbia? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.